With all the talk about the future lately, I’ve been wondering if it’s possible to predict. Laura’s dad liked the book The Black Swan, which is about extremely improbable events having the greatest impact on our world. The author argues that since these highly unlikely events change the world so much, there is no sense in trying to predict the future other than for comfort and entertainment. That may be true, but there’s one group of people that depends on their ability to predict the future: bookies.

I’m not terribly interested in the the odds of the Dodgers going to the World Series, but I am interested in who is likely to be the next president of the United States. Slate had an article on this not too long ago and according to the odds they looked at, Ms. Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

NewBodog.com is one site that mainly deals in sports wagering, but also has a section for high profile US politics. According to them, Stephen Colbert has an 800/1 chance of becoming the next president.

InTrade.com has even more interesting odds. They frame their business as “Predictions Markets” rather than betting, but you can still find some interesting predictions. You can buy shares in various markets such as, the US launching an air strike against Iran before certain dates, when Katie Couric will leave the CBS Evening News, and even the weather. They have handy little graphs to see the popularity of these predictions over time. Interesting stuff.

These kinds of markets combine the “wisdom of crowds” idea with actual money, so I would think, the results would be pretty good. Then again who knows? The opinion polling site OpinionRepublic.com has Hillary slated as the next president. However, their users have also voted for Stomp the Yard as the second Best Movie of All Time, second only to Titanic. Maybe some crowds are wiser than others.